With the campaign stuck in summer doldrums, and the speculation about Barack's vice-president at a fever-pitch, all signs point to a surprise so startling, and utterly unexpected, that announcing it Friday evening would drive up interest and coverage for a week!
That's right--the Vice President will be Hillary Clinton.
And for what it's worth, even Ralph Nader seems to believe it.
Consider the evidence:
Barack has built excitement to a fever-pitch and yet, no one seems to know who he will chose. At first, we thought it was Evan Bayh, but Steve Clemons reported that he had been dinged. Then, speculation fell on Tim Kaine, but Barack is going to be in Virginia tomorrow and Thursday and the roll-out is scheduled for Saturday, in Springfield, Illinois. Somehow, that doesn't quite make sense.
So what choice could possibly live up to the hype that this whole mess has created? Insiders said Joe Biden, and I'm sure the Democratic Senator from MBNA would fulfill every beltway insider's wildest dreams, but choosing him would go against every hint Barack has given us. (He's specifically said he wouldn't chose someone based on their foreign policy expertise, and his candidacy represents a change from inside-the-beltway Washington politics.) Then today, Biden says, "I'm not the guy."
So who is left, but Hillary Clinton?
Well, you could argue that Sebelius or Schweitzer fit the bill, and they certainly do, but seeing as how Barack has waited until the last possible moment, it seems unlikely he'd pick someone with such low visibility when he has such little time to introduce the candidate to the country. Especially since the campaign has spent so much time introducing Barack, with his unique background, to voters often wary of the "new guy", I just don't believe the campaign would chose a vice president who was even less well known.
Now imagine that a month ago, Barack decided that he would go with Hillary Clinton. What would you expect him to do?
First, he'd deflect all speculation away from her so as to dispel any lingering suspicions that he was strong-armed into the choice. This could be done by floating a variety of less-exciting possibilities--like Bayh, Kaine, and Biden.
Then, he'd give Hillary a prominent speaking spot at the convention to convince everyone that she was officially out of the running.
Finally, he'd announce his choice at the very last opportunity, in a dramatic gesture that would focus all attention on the Democratic convention and utterly deflate any Republican attempts to steal the show.
And, of course, he'd have President Clinton introduce his wife as the Vice Presidential candidate on Wednesday night....
So, there you have it. My final guess.
UPDATE: Another consideration is that the convention will be focused partially on healing the wounds of the hard-fought primary. Since he hasn't chosen a Veep yet, many of Hillary's supporters are still holding out hope he will chose her. Announcing two weeks ago would have given them ample time to fully grieve and enter the convention energized and mostly over their disappointment. Seems like a bad move to announce a dud like Kaine just three or four days before Denver.